Tonight’s Oscars are actually relevant, at least, they are to me. This is the first year I actually care who wins since the back to back years of American Beauty and Shakespeare in Love. So, I’m going to still a page out of Entertainment Weekly and do the whole “Will Win, Should Win” spiel. I know I already covered my favorites of the past year in a blog, but not all my choices were actually nominated, so shut up and read on, mom.
Best Supporting Actor
Should Win: Javier Bardem
Will Win: Javier Bardem
Upset Alert: Hal Holbrook
I say this now, that Bardem is the only lock of the night, but of course there doesn’t seem to be such a thing anymore. Especially after the shitfest that was Crash stole the award from “sure thing” Brokeback Mountain. But if there is any decency in this world, the Spainard with the bowl cut will be taking home this award. Of course, the guy who’s been playing Mark Twain since the FDR administration might get some sympathy votes. You. Just. Never. Know.
Best Supporting Actress
Should Win: Cate Blanchett
Will Win: Tilda Swinton
Upset Alert: Ruby Dee
I must admit, I haven’t seen a single one of these movies. I really can only judge on what I’ve heard or read from several sources. From what I’ve gathered, Blanchett makes her movie great, which is something I can’t say for the other four. That alone should get her the votes. Also, we all know women only win awards when they get naked or play men. Them’s the breaks, ladies. Now whip ’em out or put on a suit. But with that said, I have this odd feeling that Swinton is going to be the only win for Michael Clayton. Also, Blanchett has already won this same award before. And again, just like Holbrook, I’m afraid of old people. They always sneak under the radar. It’s a good thing American Gangster isn’t that respected, so I don’t think Ms. Dee will win. It’s a two dame race and I won’t be shocked either way.
Will Win: Julie Christie
Should Win: Julie Christie
Upset Alert: Marion Cotillard
I’d like to give it up for Ellen Page, because I genuinely loved her in the movie, but, deep down, I know she doesn’t stand a chance. She’s up against a legend that gave a performance that legitimately moved people. And let’s not forget about that French dame that I only know from Big Fish. I didn’t see her movie (mostly because David Cross does a spot-on Edith Piaf and should have gotten the role), but it seems that she was spot on, from the singer’s mannerisms to specific look. The only thing is her movie was in French, and we all know that the French can only win in two categories: wine drinking and child molesting.
Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Upset Alert: George Clooney
If Clooney, Depp, Jones, and Mortenson have a milkshake, and Daniel Day-Lewis has a milkshake, and if Day-Lewis has a straw, and his straw reaches across the room and starts to drink their milkshake…..he drinks their milkshake. He drinks it up!!!! Uh, I guess that means he’s winning this award. And for no logical reason, I’m only afraid of Clooney in this instance. The man has a lot of friends, plus I think some were turned off by There Will Be Blood. After DDL, I don’t see anyone else coming through but George. We’ll find out if he’s really the one holding the straw.
Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen
Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Upset Alert: Julian Schnabel
Reitman and That Other Guy have no shot. No chance in hell. But the other three? I wouldn’t be shocked at any of them. I get the feeling the Coens will pair this up with Best Picture. It seems like the popular choice. PTA truly deserves it, though. From top to bottom, this was his vision and he created something unique, startling, and quasi-brilliant. Again, along with his lead actor, I’m afraid the film is too divisive to win much of anything besides sound or cinematography. As for Schnabel, I haven’t seen his movie, but from what I’ve been told, it’s genius. I trust these opinions, so if enough of the Academy has also see his movie, watch out.
Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Upset Alert: Atonement
I didn’t see Atonement and I probably never will, but it just screams Best Picture. I mean, look at The English Patient, that was a boring piece of shit, but people loved it. That is how I’m viewing Atonement. I know two or three people that have seen it, and none of the above thought it was any good. Somehow, in my boggled mind, that means it’s going to win. Old people love boring shit that looks pretty. I still have faith that people aren’t completely awful, so I’m still picking No Country for Old Men. Hands down, this was the best movie of the year. Maybe the old people liked that it was pretty to look at, and can look past the simple cat that it ISN’T boring. It’s enthralling from start to finish. Yes, to finish. I know a lot of people hated the ending, but if that keeps it from winning, I’m moving to Canada and voting for Strange Brew every year.